random retrospective

2011 in coffee... where do i start?

it was an "interesting" year to say the least.

so let's go through the various highlights, lowlights and "odd" lights from the year.

Trends of the Year

1. Light Roasts. Driven by a range of trends (young coffee professionals differentiating themselves from their mentors, re-adoption of brewed coffee among professionals, scandinavian roasters, ExtractMojo, etc.) 2011 was the year of the light roast. The good results are that fewer and fewer coffees taste like ash-trays and that roasters have less ability to hide inferior and defective beans. The bad results are that many roasters don't have the skills required to light roast coffees well and most of all that we are returning to the age when our messaging to consumers is all about roast degree (rather than flavour etc).

2. Business Investments and Scaling. Stumptown takes a huge chunk of cash from a PE firm in order to scale the business. Much back-biting and smack-talking follows. Then it becomes clear that a bunch of the shit-talking competitors have done the same. It is highly likely that 2012 will continue this trend and introduce a round of consolidation as well, where these capitalized larger artisan coffee businesses proceed to acquire smaller competitors to grow inorganically.

Innovations of the Year

1. VST baskets. These baskets introduced basket design as a serious component of espresso to the coffee world. The research done by the VST crew inspires dozens of others to start looking at the differences between baskets and effects on extraction. In 2012 we should see some additional work done that answers some of the now glaring and obvious questions that have been raised as a result. It is highly likely that we will see a far better understanding of espresso come out of this process - and a number of new baskets that give baristas a far better "quiver" to work with (as opposed to the obviously flawed "one size fits all" model we have at present).

2. EP Sproline groupscreen and screw. While everyone in coffee was talking about the VST baskets and (in some cases) were radically overstating the results of them -- no-one was talking about another new product that was equally innovative and effective. These precision parts also improved extraction and dramatically decreased cleaning and contamination challenges.

Lessons of the Year

1. Espresso and brewed coffee are different. We've gone through a series of massive shifts in the way we think of espresso. From a specific flavour profile beverage to just another method of preparing coffee. At this point it seems like the pendulum has swung too far and espressos are starting to taste simply like a heavily concentrated and reduced cupped coffee. As a result, the primary goal of a "good tasting" beverage seems to have been abandoned by the wayside. The two beverages are different, but should both taste good. They do not, however, need to taste "the same" (especially if "the same" in either case means "bad").

2. Working with growers yields great results. The quality of green coffee from top producers continues to improve - but more importantly, more and more producers are taking the leap to "top producer" status (by quality). In a very large percentage of cases, this leap has been fueled by a collaborative relationship between a roaster and a grower. This direct and collaborative relationship is the emerging model for creation of truly world-class coffees. I'm really happy that more and more roasters are investing in these relationships.

3. Online conversations about coffee are frustrating and largely counterproductive. I've walked away from all coffee websites at this point. Being involved in the discussions on these sites has made me incredibly jaded and cynical about all people involved in all parts of the coffee experience. I chose to disengage because I want to continue to love coffee. I would suggest others consider this if they find themselves starting to hate people who are passionate about coffee.

Hopes for Next Year

1. Fewer sour coffees. In 2011 I had three coffees that were entirely green in the center of the bean (literally unroasted). Two of these coffees came from "highly regarded" roasters. The majority of coffees I evaluated from US roasters in 2011 had between noticeable and severe sourness. When cupping with "taste" professionals (sommeliers etc) who are not coffee pros, the biggest complaint in 2011 was sourness in the cup.

2. More honesty in coffee. People in the coffee world need to stop saying that they like competitors' coffees when they actually dislike them. People in the coffee world need to stop keeping their mouths shut about Sumatran coffee and Monsooned coffees etc etc. Consumers take our dishonesty and our silence as truth and when less reputable coffee companies market negatives as positives, the consumers don't know better. Time to call bullshit on the... well.. bullshit.

3. Better customer service. For the fourth year in a row I hope that this year is the year that going to a good coffee bar in the US is a consistently good experience rather than simply a way for hipsters to judge you as lame and undeserving of their artistic and under-appreciated genius (and luxurious facial hair).

Espressos of the Year

1. Tim Wendelboe Honduras Cielito Lindo Espresso. Showing that a very light roast coffee can still be wonderfully balanced, complete, sweet, fully developed and not sour at all. A revelation.

2. Stumptown Guatemala Finca El Injerto Bourbon Espresso. Perfectly nuanced, balanced, flexible and layered. The first single origin espresso in my memory that I would consider replacing a blend with for "each and every day for the rest of my life" purposes.

Fails of the Year

1. Numerous undrinkable shots of espresso from well-regarded coffee bars. I threw out more shots of espresso from top coffee bars in 2011 than any year before. Quality of espresso served in the top coffee bars in the US seemed in my experience to decline from 2010 to 2011.

2. Numerous severely under-developed coffees. In part, the above "bad espresso" fail was due to the severely under-developed coffees that many baristas were having to work with. As the US coffee world adopted lighter roast coffees, many failed to understand that roasting lighter requires a different approach and profile for roasting. A huge percentage of coffees evaluated in 2011 were under-developed in the roast. Where this become seriously problematic was in espressos - where many coffees were actually impossible to prepare well as a result. I'm hoping that I don't taste a single espresso in 2012 that tastes like piping hot cranberry concentrate with a dash of lab grade citric acid as a topper.

3. Restaurant coffee. Another year where restaurant coffee sucked. Another year where I stupidly tried... again and again. Local favorites, Michelin starred places... all the coffee sucked.

integrated thinking

I recently helped a long-time friend (not in the coffee business) with his initial dive into the world of home espresso.

After taking him through some basic training - he commented to me that he didn't expect making coffee to be such an "intellectual pursuit." I asked him what he meant and he replied (and I'm paraphrasing from flawed memory) something like:

I thought that making espresso would be more like an art - with a lot of self-expression going on. But it's not really like that. It's also not like science - because it's really about producing something that tastes good (an inherently subjective goal). It requires right brain and left brain thinking.

He's an engineer by training - who ended up working in marketing for Apple. It should have been no shock that he was producing decent espresso quite quickly given this and his comment above.

So... the Art v Science argument (schism?) has been a long-standing situation in coffee (pro and amateur). But after talking to my friend, I realized that both are false choices. The reality is that it's neither.

Making great coffee is a craft in the truest sense of the word. Keeping this in mind is likely to be a simple trick for determining what really is important and what is not.

logic

I love reading people bitching about the poor quality of espresso they get in coffee bars.

I went to one of the top coffee bars in NYC last week and the espresso I got was terrible. I'm no longer going to coffee bars because I can make better coffee at home.

Some simple logic here...

How did you determine that it was one of the "top coffee bars"? Logic would indicate that it might not be. The reality is that massive percentage of "top" coffee business (according to the interwebs) are total crap.

Every barista (no matter how good they are) pulls a crap shot now and then. Did you try a second shot? If not... logic would indicate you should have.

Just because you got a bad coffee (perhaps an anomaly or perhaps it's a bad coffee business) doesn't mean all coffee bars are bad. This isn't even a logic issue. It's a reason issue.

At the end of the day I can't help but wonder if you're going into coffee bars looking for an opportunity to validate your decision to spend thousands of dollars on coffee equipment for your home and/or get a nice ego stroke (rather than looking to learn about coffee).

VST basket clown show

I'm not going into details.

Feel free to do a search on the internet if you want to understand.

But rather than emailing all sorts of people... I'm just posting this statement here.

I am not interested in talking to you about how these baskets suck and why you are right in your opinion.

I am not interested in talking to you about how these baskets are revolutionary and why you are right in this opinion.

I am most certainly not interested in talking to you about how those who disagree with you are idiots or are slandering you or are mean and unpleasant.

Do not email me about this.

Do not call me about this.

Do not stop me on the street and talk to me about this.

Comments to this post that attempt to engage in discussion about this goat rodeo will be deleted.

Updated: I'm ashamed of some of you.

Stumptown Steps Up

I wrote a post about the investment that Stumptown recently raised back a week or so ago.

No... that's not the honest truth.

I wrote a post a week or so ago about how the response to the Stumptown news from within the coffee community illustrated perfectly many of the reasons that I no longer worked in coffee - and which in general took the coffee profession to task for its lack of professionalism and seriousness in business.

But that's another whole topic -- cause I decided it was the wrong thing and the wrong point.

So I decided to wait - and to see what shook out from all this.

So now I have an idea of what people are saying, have said (and probably are going to say). I think I see how this has played out. And I'm going to share my thoughts.

I have a somewhat unique perspective on this deal.

1. I used to work at Stumptown.
2. I used to work at a Corporate Venture Fund.
3. I'm a serial entrepreneur who has started multiple (externally funded) companies (two of which were sold to other companies).

So, I think I have a perspective that might be worth hearing.

Now, first, I need to put a few caveats first (just to be clear)...

1. I am not writing this based on any sort of "insider information" on the deal. My relationship with TSG is purely second hand, and while I'm still a friend of many folks at Stumptown (including Duane) and a fan of the company and its coffee I'm neither involved with the company nor involved in the deal in any way. In fact, my guess is Duane and the Stumptown family are going to probably wish I'd not said anything.
2. This is purely my opinion based on the points listed above under Perspective. In other words - I'm writing this as pure speculation (like everything else written in this thread -- and for that matter in the various press pieces covering this deal to date).

For me, there are two key things about this deal.

First - this is a huge validation for the high-end sector of the speciality coffee market. The fact that a fund like TSG is making a bet on Stumptown at this time says that they see significant potential for growth in the whole sector. This sector has long been ignored not just in the investment world (of course) but in the larger coffee world as well (the "less than 2% of the market" comment has been made a million times). For the other companies that have also been building the space, and for consumers of high-end coffees, this is great news. Sadly - as far as I know this has not be covered in the press. Given that it should be the main story, that makes me both sad and frustrated.

Second - that being said, there is one group of people out there who should be very nervous about this deal. And no... it's not Stumptown customers or Stumptown employees. It's competitors of Stumptown. In looking at the stated and rumored goals (open more retail locations in NYC, open business in Chicago, open business in SF) you can model this out to mean that (if successful) Stumptown will be at least doubling the volume of green coffee they are buying within 24 months. Where is that coffee going to come from? From other high-end roasters. And who will they be selling the roasted coffee to? That's right - customers of other roasters. And who will be working in these new roasteries and new retail locations? Yeah... you get the idea. Combining Stumptown's brand, relationships and expertise with a whole big stack of new capital... yeah, if I were running a competitor I'd be nervous.


Now... after talking to folks and reading all the crazy shit that's been out there - there are a couple things that I feel like I need to comment on. Again... these are just my opinions. But... well... I think I'm probably more right than most people.

• the idea that Duane is going to "cash out" and leave in a year or two is something that only someone who doesn't know him could ever come up with. The man has no hobbies. His entire life is coffee and Stumptown. He truly loves what he does - and he loves Stumptown. In the time I worked at Stumptown he never took a vacation longer than a 3 day weekend that I can remember. There is absolutely no way that he would (or perhaps could) do something else (and that includes not working). As a result, I feel like we can absolutely assume that his motivation was something other than "cashing out" -- which fundamentally changes the structure and tenor of the deal (given that it changes the motivation).
• everything I hear says that Stumptown was doing better financially than it ever had before. In other words, financial hardship (another common motivator for capitalization deals like this) was not the driver.
• given this, I have to assume that the motivation was in fact capitalization for growth and opportunity. This makes sense to me. Duane used to always say he wanted to bring great coffee to everyone in the world who loved things that taste good.
• now, while it's entirely possible that TSG was talking to other roasters in order to pursue a roll-up strategy, it's perhaps more likely that this was simply a pricing and competition exercise for TSG. I know it sounds sleazy but many serious investors do it. I've done it. Yeah... it causes bad feelings if the companies that are not the investment target take things personally and feel like they were either used or jilted in the process. That's life. That's business.
• as noted at the start, my relationship with TSG is purely second hand (I have friends who know them, who are at companies that have worked with them or co-invested, etc). That said, once I heard about the deal I asked around and came back with 100% positive responses. And - just to be clear - in the PE world that is not common. In fact, an associate I know at one of the most highly regarded early stage VC funds said that TSG was his dream gig. And the reputation that Alex Panos had amongst these folks was equally impressive.
• so... Very good investment firm puts money into thriving growing private company because that company wants to grow rapidly in an expanding new market. Pretty damn common, yeah? And I think we can at this point say that the usual rules, metrics and models of a deal like that probably also apply to this particular deal, okay?

To be frank, I'm kind of shocked that Stumptown was able to scale as it did without investment. As far as I know, they were the largest high-end speciality coffee company that didn't have outside investment. I'm guessing that this exact success was one of the main reasons TSG was so attracted to them.

Of course, the deal is also a validation of Stumptown. And that is an important point. No good investors are going to put money into a company based on its success and then destroy what has made it successful.

The vast majority of people have no idea what Private Equity or Venture Capital are, how they work, what the goals are, what the motivations are, or what the people working in those fields are like. They are sharing opinion based on a combination of ignorance and misinformation. To compound matters... they tend to have an automatic and innate distrust or dislike of these investors and take the results of ignorance and misinformation and filter through this distrust / dislike. Investors like this are professionals. They're not stupid.

Given all that I have walked you through above, I think we can assume that the thinking behind this deal is simple.

Stumptown has kicked ass to date
It has done so with no external capitalization (straight bootstrapping)
The entire market sector is primed to grow over the next 5-7 years
Stumptown is best positioned to take advantage of that
Let's accelerate Stumptown's growth to take advantage of these circumstances.
This will result in Stumptown being the dominant player in a newly expanded market sector at the end of this time period.
To do this, let's use external capital (investment) in order to massively expand Stumptown's geographic footprint.

At least... that's my perspective and (unfounded and speculative) opinion.


Oh... also... I used to write for the NYTimes.
I believe strongly in journalistic ethics.
Suffice it to say that there are people who have been involved in the coverage of this "story" who should not only be ashamed but should not ever be considered in any way "journalists" of any sort.

new baskets

So everyone is excited about the news baskets hitting the market, in particular the VST baskets that are coming with the new LM Strada.

I have been testing the various prototypes of this basket as well as the new baskets from Espresso Parts.

I now have production versions and will continue to evaluate.

My first observations are:

- both produce noticeably better clarity in the cup,

- both enable FAR better consistency cup to cup

- the Strada baskets require slight changes to dose and grind size (reducing both) for optimal results

- the EP baskets seem to be better at handling coffees that respond best to updosing (while the Strada baskets seem better with coffees that require down-dosing)

I'm loving both - but am very glad that I have each.

espresso - bastard stepchild of US coffee?

A quick message to the folks working at and running the high end, quality focused craft coffee companies in the US.

I know that a lot of you think espresso is "over".

I know that the cool new thing is the V60. Or is it the Aeropress? Wait... syphon? Well... let's just say that brewed coffee is the new hotness for you all.

I get it.

But here is the thing...

Your customers still drink espresso.

Some of us (shocking I know) actually prefer espresso to brewed coffee.

So the fact that some of you are either ignoring your espresso or half-assing your espresso pretty much sucks.

It's unprofessional and it is disrespectful of your customers.

We want good espresso.

Espresso in the US has, in my opinion, declined in quality over the last 2 years. There are exceptions, of course, but in general I can conclusively say that the espresso I've tasted over the last 6 months (from many of the "best" roasters in the United States) is worse than it was 2 years ago.

Don't be lazy.

Don't be selfish.

Make good espresso.